New York Knicks at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints23
- Josh HartAssists6
- Josh HartRebounds20
Clippers- James HardenPoints27
- James HardenAssists7
- Ivica ZubacRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–105
- Q41.0Bogdan Bogdanovic defensive rebound95–105
- Q44.0Miles McBride misses running pullup jump shot95–105
- Q48.1Josh Hart defensive rebound95–105
- Q48.1James Harden misses free throw 2 of 295–105
- Q48.1James Harden makes free throw 1 of 295–105
- Q48.1Josh Hart personal foul95–104
- Q411.0Bogdan Bogdanovic enters the game for Kris Dunn95–104
- Q411.0Karl-Anthony Towns steps out of bounds turnover95–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:44Karl-Anthony Towns makes 26-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 67 – 70 LAC · NY 21% → 29% +8NY 21% → 29%+8 pts
- Q36:19Nicolas Batum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kris Dunn assists)NY 67 – 73 LAC · LAC 71% → 79% +8LAC 71% → 79%+8 pts
- Q32:34OG Anunoby makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 75 – 78 LAC · NY 21% → 29% +9NY 21% → 29%+9 pts
- Q48:01Derrick Jones Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)NY 80 – 88 LAC · LAC 80% → 89% +9LAC 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q46:36Amir Coffey makes 24-foot three point shot (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)NY 85 – 93 LAC · LAC 81% → 90% +9LAC 81% → 90%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -6.5
- ML NY +200 / LAC -240
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 65.6%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -212
- NY +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 106.0 – 112.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −57 | +26 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +112 Elo | LAC 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 66.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.2 | Points scored | 110.921st of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 108.94th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.4 | Offense rating | 111.019th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 109.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 3098.9 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–11 | Road vs home | 20–108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–34 | 33–29 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 25–27 | 18–14 |
| Underdog | 3–7 | 15–15 |
| Overs–unders | 35–27 | 28–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–1 LAC in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.