New York Knicks at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints39
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds14
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints32
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- LeBron JamesRebounds12
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game109–113
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime109–113
- OT0.1Luka Doncic defensive rebound109–113
- OT2.1Miles McBride misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot109–113
- OT9.1LeBron James makes free throw 2 of 2109–113
- OT9.1LeBron James makes free throw 1 of 2109–112
- OT9.1Miles McBride personal foul109–111
- OT9.1LeBron James defensive rebound109–111
- OT10.1OG Anunoby misses free throw 1 of 1109–111
- OT10.1Jarred Vanderbilt enters the game for Jaxson Hayes109–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:55Gabe Vincent makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)NY 94 – 93 LAL · LAL 21% → 43% +22LAL 21% → 43%+22 pts
- Q41:51LeBron James makes 29-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)NY 96 – 96 LAL · LAL 22% → 51% +29LAL 22% → 51%+29 pts
- Q41:21Gabe Vincent makes 22-foot three point shot (LeBron James assists)NY 96 – 99 LAL · LAL 51% → 83% +32LAL 51% → 83%+32 pts
- Q446.1Jalen Brunson makes driving layupNY 98 – 99 LAL · NY 11% → 33% +23NY 11% → 33%+23 pts
- OT2:40Austin Reaves makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaxson Hayes assists)NY 103 – 107 LAL · LAL 60% → 82% +22LAL 60% → 82%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -2.5
- ML NY +115 / LAL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4.5
- LAL 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 67.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAL -124
- NY +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 114.5 – 117.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1634 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +21 | +43 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +128 Elo | LAL 67.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30117.4 | Points scored | 113.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 111.29th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+4.4 | Margin | +2.012th of 30 |
| 4th of 30117.6 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.512th of 30 |
| 25th of 3099.0 | Pace | 99.521st of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3019–10 | Road vs home | 24–73rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+21 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–33 | 35–25 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 25–27 | 19–16 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 16–9 |
| Overs–unders | 35–26 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 1–2 LAL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 3.