Golden State Warriors at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints28
- Stephen CurryAssists9
- Draymond GreenRebounds9
Knicks- OG AnunobyPoints29
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Precious AchiuwaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–102
- Q48.1Stephen Curry defensive rebound114–102
- Q411.0Mikal Bridges misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot114–102
- Q418.0Moses Moody makes alley oop layup (Stephen Curry assists)114–102
- Q436.1Draymond Green defensive rebound112–102
- Q439.1Mikal Bridges misses 24-foot three point jumper112–102
- Q441.18 second turnover112–102
- Q449.2Jalen Brunson makes two point shot (OG Anunoby assists)112–102
- Q458.1Moses Moody kicked ball violation112–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32.0Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 82 – 81 NY · GS 41% → 54% +12GS 41% → 54%+12 pts
- Q410:18Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cameron Payne assists)GS 86 – 86 NY · NY 37% → 51% +13NY 37% → 51%+13 pts
- Q47:37OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)GS 94 – 92 NY · NY 26% → 40% +14NY 26% → 40%+14 pts
- Q46:24Gui Santos makes 27-foot three point shot (Draymond Green assists)GS 97 – 93 NY · GS 55% → 71% +16GS 55% → 71%+16 pts
- Q45:15Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three pointer (Draymond Green assists)GS 100 – 93 NY · GS 73% → 86% +13GS 73% → 86%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- NY -1.5
- ML GS -105 / NY -115
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -0.5
- NY 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- NY: Elo 53.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- NY -104
- GS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 112.5 – 114.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1578 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +51 | −42 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +21 Elo | NY 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 52.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 117.65th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Points allowed | 112.914th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+1.9 | Margin | +4.76th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.7 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 113.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.025th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 12th of 3016–15 | Road vs home | 21–108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–28 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 25–26 |
| Underdog | 12–10 | 3–6 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 35–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–1 NY in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.