Detroit Pistons at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints37
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Cade CunninghamRebounds7
Clippers- James HardenPoints50
- Kris DunnAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–123
- Q416.1Cade Cunningham makes 1-foot dunk115–123
- Q422.0Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound113–123
- Q422.2James Harden misses free throw 2 of 2113–123
- Q422.2James Harden makes free throw 1 of 2113–123
- Q422.2Ausar Thompson personal foul113–122
- Q427.1Cade Cunningham bad pass (James Harden steals)113–122
- Q431.1Nicolas Batum loose ball foul113–122
- Q431.1Pistons offensive team rebound113–122
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:47Cade Cunningham makes 29-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 97 – 97 LAC · DET 39% → 53% +14DET 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q47:00Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ivica Zubac assists)DET 99 – 100 LAC · LAC 36% → 52% +16LAC 36% → 52%+16 pts
- Q46:23Bogdan Bogdanovic makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 99 – 103 LAC · LAC 53% → 69% +16LAC 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q43:57James Harden makes 31-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 105 – 112 LAC · LAC 75% → 89% +14LAC 75% → 89%+14 pts
- Q43:46Dennis Schroder makes 28-foot three pointerDET 108 – 112 LAC · DET 11% → 25% +14DET 11% → 25%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -150 / LAC +130
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4.5
- DET 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- DET: Elo 67.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- DET -138
- LAC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 112.0 – 108.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +47 | −32 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +127 Elo | DET 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 108.84th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 110.820th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 108.84th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 99.422nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–13 | Road vs home | 19–1010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–26 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–13 | 18–14 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 32–30 | 27–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 1–2 LAC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.