Detroit Pistons at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints29
- Cade CunninghamAssists9
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints25
- Svi MykhailiukAssists4
- Walker KesslerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game134–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter134–106
- Q419.1Kyle Filipowski makes 23-foot three point jumper (Svi Mykhailiuk assists)134–106
- Q441.1Jazz defensive team rebound134–103
- Q443.1Lindy Waters III misses 25-foot three point shot134–103
- Q449.1Simone Fontecchio defensive rebound134–103
- Q453.1Keyonte George misses 23-foot three point jumper134–103
- Q41:06Marcus Sasser out of bounds bad pass turnover134–103
- Q41:22Svi Mykhailiuk bad pass (Lindy Waters III steals)134–103
- Q41:38Lindy Waters III makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)134–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:43Johnny Juzang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)DET 0 – 3 UTAH · UTAH 20% → 25% +5UTAH 20% → 25%+5 pts
- Q19:44Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 7 – 5 UTAH · DET 78% → 82% +4DET 78% → 82%+4 pts
- Q17:39Walker Kessler makes two point shotDET 10 – 12 UTAH · UTAH 21% → 25% +3UTAH 21% → 25%+3 pts
- Q17:05Malik Beasley makes 25-foot three point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 13 – 12 UTAH · DET 75% → 80% +5DET 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q15:50Dennis Schroder makes 24-foot three point jumper (Simone Fontecchio assists)DET 18 – 16 UTAH · DET 77% → 81% +5DET 77% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML DET -500 / UTAH +375
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -8
- DET 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- DET: Elo 78.2%, market 79.8%
- Fair odds
- DET -396
- UTAH +396 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 121.0 – 110.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1399 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | −38 | DET: Missing Tobias Harris −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Missing Elijah Harkless −2 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +222 Elo | DET 78.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 79.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 79.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 112.419th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 119.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −7.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 110.222nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 117.030th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.3 | Pace | 101.39th of 30 |
| 2nd of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3017–13 | Road vs home | 8–2329th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+42 Elo- Tobias Harris personal−16 Elo
Jazz
−38 Elo- Elijah Harkless did not dress−2 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–26 | 31–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–13 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 31–27 |
| Overs–unders | 31–30 | 36–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.