Orlando Magic at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints25
- Franz WagnerAssists5
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds12
Rockets- Jabari Smith Jr.Points20
- Jalen GreenAssists8
- Steven AdamsRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game84–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter84–97
- Q411.1Cam Whitmore defensive rebound84–97
- Q411.2Jett Howard misses driving layup84–97
- Q419.1Jett Howard defensive rebound84–97
- Q421.1Aaron Holiday misses two point shot84–97
- Q443.1Caleb Houstan makes free throw 2 of 284–97
- Q443.1Caleb Houstan makes free throw 1 of 283–97
- Q443.1Nate Williams shooting foul82–97
- Q458.1Aaron Holiday makes free throw 2 of 282–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:34Gary Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 30 – 27 HOU · ORL 44% → 51% +7ORL 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q29:14Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Holiday assists)ORL 30 – 30 HOU · HOU 48% → 56% +7HOU 48% → 56%+7 pts
- Q25:04Dillon Brooks makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jalen Green assists)ORL 40 – 40 HOU · HOU 48% → 56% +8HOU 48% → 56%+8 pts
- Q24:27Jalen Green makes 24-foot three point jumperORL 40 – 43 HOU · HOU 55% → 63% +8HOU 55% → 63%+8 pts
- Q33:17Jeff Green makes 25-foot three point jumperORL 58 – 68 HOU · HOU 77% → 85% +7HOU 77% → 85%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML ORL +125 / HOU -145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.3%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -133
- ORL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 103.5 – 107.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 210.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −10 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Missing Amen Thompson −21, Fred VanVleet −9 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +125 Elo | HOU 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 62.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.6 | Points scored | 113.217th of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.2 | Points allowed | 109.36th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +3.87th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 111.617th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.1 | Defense rating | 107.82nd of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.917th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–19 | Road vs home | 21–108th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−10 Elo- Amen Thompson left ankle sprain−21 Elo
- Fred VanVleet right ankle injury−9 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–34 | 35–29 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 24–20 |
| Underdog | 11–17 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–39 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–1 HOU in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.