Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Spencer DinwiddiePoints28
- Spencer DinwiddieAssists6
- Kessler EdwardsRebounds11
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints29
- Chris PaulAssists9
- Harrison BarnesRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game133–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter133–129
- Q41.0Naji Marshall makes free throw 2 of 2133–129
- Q41.0Naji Marshall makes free throw 1 of 2132–129
- Q41.0De'Aaron Fox personal take foul131–129
- Q42.1Harrison Barnes makes 25-foot three pointer (Stephon Castle assists)131–129
- Q46.1Spurs Full timeout131–126
- Q46.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2131–126
- Q46.1Klay Thompson makes free throw 1 of 2130–126
- Q46.1Julian Champagnie enters the game for Devin Vassell129–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:23Blake Wesley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)DAL 108 – 108 SA · SA 44% → 58% +14SA 44% → 58%+14 pts
- Q44:38Devin Vassell makes driving layupDAL 117 – 116 SA · SA 36% → 49% +13SA 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q44:25Naji Marshall makes 3-foot two point shotDAL 119 – 116 SA · DAL 51% → 64% +13DAL 51% → 64%+13 pts
- Q42:42Harrison Barnes makes 1-foot dunkDAL 121 – 118 SA · SA 16% → 29% +13SA 16% → 29%+13 pts
- Q449.1Keldon Johnson makes two point shotDAL 125 – 123 SA · SA 6% → 23% +17SA 6% → 23%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML DAL +205 / SA -250
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2
- SA 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.5 pts
- SA: Elo 57.0%, market 68.5%
- Fair odds
- SA -218
- DAL +218 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 113.5 – 120.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1415 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | SA and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −110 | −16 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −37, P.J. Washington −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +49 Elo | SA 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 66.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 65.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 68.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30114.5 | Points scored | 113.415th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 111.716th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.8 | Defense rating | 114.024th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 17th of 3013–18 | Road vs home | 15–1419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−110 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee sprain−37 Elo
- P.J. Washington right ankle sprain−4 Elo
Spurs
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–33 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders | 32–33 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 6–0 SA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.