Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints24
- Kevin DurantAssists8
- Kevin DurantRebounds9
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints34
- Naji MarshallAssists10
- Naji MarshallRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–116
- Q40.0shot clock turnover125–116
- Q422.1Ryan Dunn defensive rebound125–116
- Q425.2Naji Marshall misses running pullup jump shot125–116
- Q430.1Max Christie defensive rebound125–116
- Q433.0Collin Gillespie misses driving layup125–116
- Q453.1Naji Marshall bad pass (Ryan Dunn steals)125–116
- Q454.0Naji Marshall defensive rebound125–116
- Q457.1Tyus Jones misses 17-foot pullup jump shot125–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:12Klay Thompson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Brandon Williams assists)PHX 9 – 12 DAL · DAL 31% → 37% +6DAL 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q15:59Kessler Edwards makes 22-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)PHX 11 – 17 DAL · DAL 38% → 44% +6DAL 38% → 44%+6 pts
- Q14:44Bradley Beal makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 16 – 19 DAL · PHX 55% → 62% +7PHX 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q14:06Brandon Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)PHX 18 – 22 DAL · DAL 34% → 41% +6DAL 34% → 41%+6 pts
- Q38:30Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point shot (Naji Marshall assists)PHX 72 – 65 DAL · DAL 13% → 19% +6DAL 13% → 19%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -6.5
- ML PHX -265 / DAL +215
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -0.5
- PHX 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −17.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 52.1%, market 69.6%
- Fair odds
- PHX -229
- DAL +229 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 118.0 – 111.5 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −110 | PHX: Usual rotation · DAL: Missing P.J. Washington −3 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +15 Elo | PHX 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 66.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 64.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 69.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 114.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 114.117th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−2.2 | Margin | +0.416th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 113.012th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.3 | Defense rating | 112.614th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3011–21 | Road vs home | 19–1414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−110 Elo- P.J. Washington right ankle sprain−3 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–39 | 32–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–24 | 14–15 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 31–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–3 DAL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.