Charlotte Hornets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints27
- LaMelo BallAssists15
- Mark WilliamsRebounds10
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints26
- Bismack BiyomboAssists4
- Keldon JohnsonRebounds5
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game145–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter145–134
- Q40.0(00:00) [Hornets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)145–134
- Q40.08 second turnover145–134
- Q45.2Nick Smith Jr. defensive rebound145–134
- Q48.1Malaki Branham misses free throw 2 of 2145–134
- Q48.1Malaki Branham makes free throw 1 of 2145–134
- Q48.1DaQuan Jeffries shooting foul145–133
- Q411.1DaQuan Jeffries bad pass (Malaki Branham steals)145–133
- Q419.0Malaki Branham makes 26-foot three point shot (Harrison Ingram assists)145–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q17:20Josh Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)CHA 20 – 13 SA · CHA 54% → 60% +6CHA 54% → 60%+6 pts
- Q15:47Miles Bridges makes 27-foot three pointer (Mark Williams assists)CHA 25 – 17 SA · CHA 56% → 63% +6CHA 56% → 63%+6 pts
- Q14:39Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three pointerCHA 25 – 20 SA · SA 37% → 44% +7SA 37% → 44%+7 pts
- Q12:14Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Marcus Garrett assists)CHA 32 – 24 SA · CHA 57% → 64% +7CHA 57% → 64%+7 pts
- Q12.1Nick Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 37 – 26 SA · CHA 64% → 71% +6CHA 64% → 71%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -2.5
- ML CHA +115 / SA -135
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3.5
- SA 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.3 pts
- SA: Elo 64.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -124
- CHA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 115.0 – 117.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1267 | 1417 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +30 | −52 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +104 Elo | SA 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.4 | Points scored | 113.815th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −2.320th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 112.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.8 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 29th of 306–25 | Road vs home | 16–1518th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
−52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–33 | 28–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 32–25 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders | 23–42 | 37–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 2–1 SA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.