Brooklyn Nets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- D'Angelo RussellPoints28
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- D'Angelo RussellRebounds6
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints26
- Miles BridgesAssists5
- Moussa DiabateRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–105
- Q40.0Nets offensive team rebound102–105
- Q40.1Trendon Watford misses 35-foot three point pullup jump shot102–105
- Q42.1Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2102–105
- Q42.1Nick Smith Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2102–104
- Q42.1Tyrese Martin personal take foul102–103
- Q42.2Cam Thomas personal take foul102–103
- Q42.2Miles Bridges defensive rebound102–103
- Q44.1Miles Bridges blocks Cam Thomas 's 5-foot driving floating jump shot102–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:23Miles Bridges makes 1-foot two point shotBKN 97 – 93 CHA · CHA 14% → 22% +8CHA 14% → 22%+8 pts
- Q44:49Tyrese Martin makes 14-foot two point shot (Keon Johnson assists)BKN 99 – 93 CHA · BKN 78% → 87% +8BKN 78% → 87%+8 pts
- Q42:45Miles Bridges makes two point shot (Tidjane Salaun assists)BKN 102 – 98 CHA · CHA 8% → 17% +9CHA 8% → 17%+9 pts
- Q42:11Damion Baugh makes 2-foot two point shotBKN 102 – 101 CHA · CHA 21% → 37% +16CHA 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q41:34Moussa Diabate makes two point shotBKN 102 – 103 CHA · CHA 36% → 58% +23CHA 36% → 58%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nets 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BKN -5.5
- ML BKN -220 / CHA +180
- Pre-line forecast
- BKN 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -7.5
- BKN 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.7 pts
- BKN: Elo 77.5%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- BKN -192
- CHA +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 109.0 – 103.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 212.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1252 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | −90 | BKN: Usual rotation · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +215 Elo | BKN 77.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BKN 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BKN 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BKN 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30105.2 | Points scored | 105.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 113.115th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−6.5 | Margin | −7.828th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.0 | Offense rating | 105.029th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30113.7 | Defense rating | 112.816th of 30 |
| 29th of 3097.7 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–20 | Road vs home | 9–2428th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−90 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–29 | 30–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 4–5 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 29–24 | 30–24 |
| Overs–unders | 27–35 | 23–39 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 4–2 CHA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.