Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints40
- Draymond GreenAssists10
- Gary Payton IIRebounds9
Nets- Cameron JohnsonPoints26
- Nic ClaxtonAssists10
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–119
- Q40.0(00:00) [Warriors] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)121–119
- Q40.0Cameron Johnson makes two point shot121–119
- Q42.1Cameron Johnson offensive rebound121–117
- Q42.1Cam Thomas misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot121–117
- Q48.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2121–117
- Q48.1Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2120–117
- Q48.1Nic Claxton personal take foul119–117
- Q410.1Cam Thomas makes 34-foot three pointer (D'Angelo Russell assists)119–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q35:37Stephen Curry makes 22-foot three point jumper (Quinten Post assists)GS 75 – 74 BKN · GS 64% → 73% +9GS 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q35:05Jalen Wilson makes 25-foot three point shot (Nic Claxton assists)GS 75 – 79 BKN · BKN 33% → 43% +10BKN 33% → 43%+10 pts
- Q33:16Moses Moody makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Kevon Looney assists)GS 80 – 83 BKN · GS 48% → 59% +11GS 48% → 59%+11 pts
- Q410:14Jimmy Butler III makes layup (Draymond Green assists)GS 90 – 91 BKN · GS 53% → 62% +9GS 53% → 62%+9 pts
- Q45:23Stephen Curry makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)GS 104 – 97 BKN · GS 82% → 92% +10GS 82% → 92%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -11.5
- ML GS -600 / BKN +400
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -6
- GS 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- GS: Elo 72.7%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- GS -429
- BKN +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.5 – 107.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1379 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +32 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | BKN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +171 Elo | GS 72.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 80.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 79.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 105.029th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.0 | Points allowed | 111.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.1 | Margin | −6.626th of 30 |
| 15th of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 106.827th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 113.523rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 97.729th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 10th of 3017–15 | Road vs home | 9–2027th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–28 | 32–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 4–5 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 26–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.