Cleveland Cavaliers at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints24
- Evan MobleyAssists4
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints46
- LaMelo BallAssists7
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–117
- Q40.0Hornets offensive team rebound118–117
- Q40.0Miles Bridges misses 50-foot three point pullup jump shot118–117
- Q42.1Jusuf Nurkic defensive rebound118–117
- Q44.1Donovan Mitchell misses free throw 2 of 2118–117
- Q44.1Isaac Okoro enters the game for Jarrett Allen118–117
- Q44.1Max Strus enters the game for Darius Garland118–117
- Q44.1Damion Baugh enters the game for Moussa Diabate118–117
- Q44.1Cavaliers offensive team rebound118–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:09Moussa Diabate makes 2-foot layup (LaMelo Ball assists)CLE 101 – 106 CHA · CHA 60% → 75% +14CHA 60% → 75%+14 pts
- Q42:16Evan Mobley makes 25-foot three pointerCLE 106 – 106 CHA · CLE 34% → 62% +28CLE 34% → 62%+28 pts
- Q41:01Damion Baugh makes 1-foot two point shotCLE 110 – 110 CHA · CHA 18% → 42% +24CHA 18% → 42%+24 pts
- Q443.1De'Andre Hunter makes two point shotCLE 112 – 110 CHA · CLE 57% → 85% +28CLE 57% → 85%+28 pts
- Q48.1Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Nick Smith Jr. assists)CLE 116 – 115 CHA · CHA <1% → 15% +15CHA <1% → 15%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 91%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 90–95% have won 98.7% of 78 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -16.5
- ML CLE -2000 / CHA +1000
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 94%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -18.5
- CLE 95%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 95.2%, market 91.3%
- Fair odds
- CLE -1048
- CHA +1048 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 126.0 – 109.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1709 | 1252 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | −39 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +518 Elo | CLE 95.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 93.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 93.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 91.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 105.229th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 113.114th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.5 | Margin | −7.928th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.7 | Offense rating | 104.929th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.4 | Defense rating | 112.716th of 30 |
| 6th of 30101.8 | Pace | 99.820th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 1st of 3023–6 | Road vs home | 9–2328th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–21 | 29–32 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 37–19 | 0–8 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 41–21 | 23–38 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 4–2 CHA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.