Charlotte Hornets at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints31
- LaMelo BallAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds14
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints35
- Trae YoungAssists12
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–123
- Q43.2shot clock turnover110–123
- Q418.1Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound110–123
- Q420.1Caris LeVert misses 22-foot three point jumper110–123
- Q444.1Moussa Diabate makes 7-foot dunk (Marcus Garrett assists)110–123
- Q41:00Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2108–123
- Q41:00Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2108–122
- Q41:00Marcus Garrett enters the game for DaQuan Jeffries108–121
- Q41:00Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for LaMelo Ball108–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:00Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three point jumper (Marcus Garrett assists)CHA 38 – 38 ATL · CHA 26% → 33% +7CHA 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q25:52Vit Krejci makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)CHA 38 – 41 ATL · ATL 67% → 74% +7ATL 67% → 74%+7 pts
- Q228.0Miles Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 49 – 50 ATL · CHA 25% → 32% +7CHA 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q49:58Nick Smith Jr. makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Marcus Garrett assists)CHA 85 – 89 ATL · CHA 17% → 24% +7CHA 17% → 24%+7 pts
- Q49:09Vit Krejci makes 27-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)CHA 85 – 94 ATL · ATL 83% → 91% +8ATL 83% → 91%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -7.5
- ML CHA +230 / ATL -280
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6.5
- ATL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 74.6%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -243
- CHA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 117.0 – 124.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1273 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | +2 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Jalen Johnson −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +187 Elo | ATL 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 73.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.3 | Points scored | 117.35th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.8 | Points allowed | 119.727th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −2.420th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.2 | Offense rating | 111.118th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.6 | Defense rating | 113.419th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–24 | Road vs home | 16–1620th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+2 Elo- Jalen Johnson left shoulder−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–32 | 31–34 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 8–16 |
| Underdog | 32–24 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 23–41 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 3–3 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.