Philadelphia 76ers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints35
- Jared ButlerAssists6
- Quentin GrimesRebounds7
Hawks- Dyson DanielsPoints25
- Dyson DanielsAssists9
- Clint CapelaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–132
- Q40.2Terance Mann defensive rebound123–132
- Q42.1Justin Edwards misses 11-foot pullup jump shot123–132
- Q49.1Zaccharie Risacher makes 6-foot dunk (Dyson Daniels assists)123–132
- Q413.2Dyson Daniels defensive rebound123–130
- Q415.1Quentin Grimes misses driving layup123–130
- Q425.1Dyson Daniels makes free throw 2 of 2123–130
- Q425.1Zaccharie Risacher enters the game for Georges Niang123–129
- Q425.1Dyson Daniels makes free throw 1 of 2123–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:57Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 26-foot running pullup jump shotPHI 21 – 18 ATL · PHI 24% → 29% +6PHI 24% → 29%+6 pts
- Q14:42Zaccharie Risacher makes 28-foot three point jumper (Georges Niang assists)PHI 21 – 21 ATL · ATL 71% → 76% +6ATL 71% → 76%+6 pts
- Q14:27Ricky Council IV makes 26-foot three point jumper (Lonnie Walker IV assists)PHI 24 – 21 ATL · PHI 24% → 29% +6PHI 24% → 29%+6 pts
- Q12:29Georges Niang makes 23-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)PHI 28 – 29 ATL · ATL 72% → 78% +6ATL 72% → 78%+6 pts
- Q119.1Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 31 – 31 ATL · PHI 20% → 25% +5PHI 20% → 25%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -9.5
- ML PHI +340 / ATL -450
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -6
- ATL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 73.0%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -360
- PHI +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.0 – 119.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1386 | 1452 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −89 | −58 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −44, Andre Drummond −9 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −47 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +173 Elo | ATL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 69.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 69.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 117.15th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 119.727th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.8 | Margin | −2.621st of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.1 | Offense rating | 110.921st of 30 |
| 26th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 113.319th of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.5 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–20 | Road vs home | 15–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−89 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−44 Elo
- Andre Drummond illness−9 Elo
Hawks
−58 Elo- Trae Young left quad contusion−47 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–41 | 31–33 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 16–23 | 23–18 |
| Overs–unders | 36–27 | 38–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.