Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points27
- Kelly Oubre Jr.Assists6
- Andre DrummondRebounds10
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints35
- Payton PritchardAssists6
- Neemias QuetaRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–123
- Q41.1Jared Butler makes driving layup105–123
- Q48.0Jared Butler defensive rebound103–123
- Q410.0Drew Peterson misses 23-foot three point jumper103–123
- Q427.1Ricky Council IV makes two point shot103–123
- Q430.1Jordan Walsh bad pass (Jeff Dowtin Jr. steals)101–123
- Q435.0Miles Norris defensive rebound101–123
- Q437.0Adem Bona misses 4-foot two point shot101–123
- Q444.276ers offensive team rebound101–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:09Derrick White makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotPHI 0 – 3 BOS · BOS 87% → 90% +3BOS 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q110:35Jayson Tatum makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kornet assists)PHI 2 – 6 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q110:24Justin Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 5 – 6 BOS · PHI 9% → 12% +3PHI 9% → 12%+3 pts
- Q19:47Derrick White makes 26-foot three pointer (Neemias Queta assists)PHI 7 – 11 BOS · BOS 88% → 91% +3BOS 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q16:27Lonnie Walker IV makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)PHI 14 – 15 BOS · PHI 10% → 13% +3PHI 10% → 13%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 87%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.8% of 219 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -13.5
- ML PHI +650 / BOS -900
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -12
- BOS 88%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 87.7%, market 87.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -675
- PHI +675 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 102.0 – 115.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1384 | 1676 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BOS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −96 | −54 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −40 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · BOS: Missing Sam Hauser −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +341 Elo | BOS 87.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 88.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 88.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 87.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.1 | Points scored | 117.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 108.43rd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.7 | Margin | +8.63rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 117.64th of 30 |
| 25th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 108.94th of 30 |
| 27th of 3098.4 | Pace | 98.626th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–19 | Road vs home | 20–1111th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−96 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−40 Elo
Celtics
−54 Elo- Sam Hauser right ankle sprain−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–39 | 28–34 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–17 | 27–32 |
| Underdog | 16–22 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 28–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–5 BOS in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.