Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Bennedict MathurinPoints30
- Andrew NembhardAssists12
- Bennedict MathurinRebounds8
Hawks- Trae YoungPoints36
- Trae YoungAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds16
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q40.1Andrew Nembhard defensive rebound118–120
- Q40.1Trae Young misses free throw 2 of 2118–120
- Q40.1Trae Young makes free throw 1 of 2118–120
- Q40.1Aaron Nesmith personal take foul118–119
- Q41.1Pascal Siakam makes driving dunk (Andrew Nembhard assists)118–119
- Q47.1Trae Young makes free throw 2 of 2116–119
- Q47.1Myles Turner enters the game for Ben Sheppard116–118
- Q47.1Terance Mann enters the game for Georges Niang116–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:50Bennedict Mathurin makes 25-foot three pointerIND 107 – 106 ATL · IND 39% → 56% +18IND 39% → 56%+18 pts
- Q41:21Andrew Nembhard makes 20-foot step back jumpshotIND 113 – 115 ATL · IND 11% → 27% +16IND 11% → 27%+16 pts
- Q41:05Onyeka Okongwu makes layup (Trae Young assists)IND 113 – 117 ATL · ATL 75% → 92% +16ATL 75% → 92%+16 pts
- Q456.1Andrew Nembhard makes driving layup (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 115 – 117 ATL · IND 7% → 23% +16IND 7% → 23%+16 pts
- Q419.0Myles Turner makes free throw 1 of 2IND 116 – 117 ATL · IND 10% → 26% +16IND 10% → 26%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- IND -1.5
- ML IND -115 / ATL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -1
- IND 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- IND: Elo 54.6%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- IND -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.5 – 120.0 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +17 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +32 Elo | IND 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 117.05th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 119.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −2.721st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.7 | Offense rating | 110.921st of 30 |
| 20th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 113.421st of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 14–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–31 | 30–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–19 | 8–15 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 34–27 | 38–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–1 ATL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.