Indiana Pacers at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints35
- Andrew NembhardAssists10
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Hawks- Georges NiangPoints24
- Trae YoungAssists16
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–124
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–124
- Q43.1Ben Sheppard makes 24-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)118–124
- Q411.0Onyeka Okongwu makes 1-foot dunk (Trae Young assists)115–124
- Q417.1Trae Young defensive rebound115–122
- Q422.1Pascal Siakam misses 25-foot three point jumper115–122
- Q426.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 2 of 2115–122
- Q426.1Onyeka Okongwu makes free throw 1 of 2115–121
- Q426.1Obi Toppin personal take foul115–120
- Q427.1Pascal Siakam makes driving layup115–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:09Zaccharie Risacher makes 26-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)IND 100 – 101 ATL · ATL 41% → 58% +17ATL 41% → 58%+17 pts
- Q45:47Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)IND 102 – 104 ATL · ATL 46% → 64% +18ATL 46% → 64%+18 pts
- Q45:03Georges Niang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Caris LeVert assists)IND 102 – 107 ATL · ATL 64% → 80% +16ATL 64% → 80%+16 pts
- Q42:42Dyson Daniels makes 22-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)IND 106 – 112 ATL · ATL 76% → 91% +16ATL 76% → 91%+16 pts
- Q42:29Aaron Nesmith makes 25-foot three pointerIND 109 – 112 ATL · IND 8% → 24% +16IND 8% → 24%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -1.5
- ML IND +120 / ATL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 44%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2
- ATL 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 41.5%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- IND +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 120.0 – 121.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1576 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −30 | +14 | IND: Missing Tyrese Haliburton −54 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +60 Elo | IND 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 55.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 116.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 119.727th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −2.821st of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 110.621st of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 113.321st of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.0 | Pace | 105.02nd of 30 |
| 10th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 13th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 13–1622nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−30 Elo- Tyrese Haliburton left hip strain−54 Elo
Hawks
+14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–30 | 29–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 18–19 | 7–15 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 22–18 |
| Overs–unders | 33–27 | 37–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 5–0 ATL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.