Utah Jazz at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Kyle FilipowskiPoints25
- Isaiah CollierAssists10
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds7
76ers- Lonnie Walker IVPoints25
- Jared ButlerAssists9
- Adem BonaRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–126
- Q40.0Jazz offensive team rebound122–126
- Q40.0Keyonte George misses 28-foot three point jumper122–126
- Q40.1Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for KJ Martin122–126
- Q40.1Jazz Full timeout122–126
- Q40.1Lonnie Walker IV makes free throw 2 of 2122–126
- Q40.1Lonnie Walker IV makes free throw 1 of 2122–125
- Q40.1Isaiah Collier personal foul122–124
- Q41.1(00:01.8) [76ers] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL OVERTURNED) [76ers] retain their timeout122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:49Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 27-foot three pointerUTAH 38 – 40 PHI · PHI 62% → 69% +7PHI 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q22:16KJ Martin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 54 – 55 PHI · UTAH 26% → 34% +7UTAH 26% → 34%+7 pts
- Q37:46Brice Sensabaugh makes 29-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 72 – 76 PHI · UTAH 19% → 27% +7UTAH 19% → 27%+7 pts
- Q37:01Quentin Grimes makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kelly Oubre Jr. assists)UTAH 72 – 79 PHI · PHI 73% → 81% +7PHI 73% → 81%+7 pts
- Q44:48Brice Sensabaugh makes 23-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 104 – 110 PHI · UTAH 5% → 13% +8UTAH 5% → 13%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -6.5
- ML UTAH +200 / PHI -245
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.6%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -213
- UTAH +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.5 – 119.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1381 | 1381 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −109 | −99 | UTAH: Missing Walker Kessler −32, Oscar Tshiebwe −17, Jaden Springer −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −40 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +46 Elo | PHI 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 67.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.4 | Points scored | 109.026th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 114.016th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −5.024th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 110.022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 115.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.327th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–24 | Road vs home | 11–2124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−109 Elo- Walker Kessler rest−32 Elo
- Oscar Tshiebwe injury/illness−17 Elo
- Jaden Springer lower back soreness−5 Elo
76ers
−99 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back sprain−40 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–30 | 22–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 6–17 |
| Underdog | 32–29 | 16–23 |
| Overs–unders | 38–25 | 35–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–2 PHI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.