Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Walker KesslerPoints18
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists8
- Walker KesslerRebounds25
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints34
- Scottie BarnesAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–118
- Q46.1shot clock turnover109–118
- Q429.1Walker Kessler makes two point shot109–118
- Q430.1Walker Kessler offensive rebound107–118
- Q431.0Cody Williams misses 22-foot three point step back jumpshot107–118
- Q439.1Cody Williams defensive rebound107–118
- Q441.1Orlando Robinson misses 25-foot three point jumper107–118
- Q41:02Isaiah Collier makes free throw 2 of 2107–118
- Q41:02Jazz offensive team rebound106–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:59Orlando Robinson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)UTAH 32 – 35 TOR · TOR 63% → 69% +7TOR 63% → 69%+7 pts
- Q27:42Ja'Kobe Walter makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)UTAH 36 – 42 TOR · TOR 69% → 76% +6TOR 69% → 76%+6 pts
- Q24:18Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 40 – 42 TOR · UTAH 26% → 33% +7UTAH 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q22:24Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)UTAH 42 – 49 TOR · TOR 72% → 78% +7TOR 72% → 78%+7 pts
- Q44:17Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three point shot (A.J. Lawson assists)UTAH 102 – 111 TOR · TOR 88% → 95% +8TOR 88% → 95%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -5.5
- ML UTAH +175 / TOR -210
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -4
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 65.8%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -186
- UTAH +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 111.5 – 117.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −53 | +8 | UTAH: Missing Jaden Springer −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −26, RJ Barrett −23 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +114 Elo | TOR 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 69.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 110.424th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 116.124th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −5.725th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 108.426th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 114.124th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 100.915th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–23 | Road vs home | 13–1923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−53 Elo- Jaden Springer lower back soreness−1 Elo
Raptors
+8 Elo- Jakob Poeltl rest−26 Elo
- RJ Barrett rest−23 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–29 | 37–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 32–28 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 38–24 | 32–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 TOR in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.