Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Johnny JuzangPoints27
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds13
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints23
- Bub CarringtonAssists9
- Kyshawn GeorgeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–125
- Q41.0Marcus Smart defensive rebound122–125
- Q41.0Brice Sensabaugh misses 24-foot three point jumper122–125
- Q43.1Brice Sensabaugh enters the game for KJ Martin122–125
- Q43.1Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Corey Kispert122–125
- Q43.1Jazz Full timeout122–125
- Q43.1Bub Carrington makes free throw 2 of 2122–125
- Q43.1Wizards offensive team rebound122–124
- Q43.1Bub Carrington misses free throw 1 of 2122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:00Svi Mykhailiuk makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotUTAH 97 – 97 WSH · UTAH 31% → 44% +13UTAH 31% → 44%+13 pts
- Q49:43Marcus Smart makes 29-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)UTAH 97 – 100 WSH · WSH 56% → 69% +13WSH 56% → 69%+13 pts
- Q47:27Justin Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)UTAH 99 – 106 WSH · WSH 75% → 86% +11WSH 75% → 86%+11 pts
- Q45:31Bilal Coulibaly makes 1-foot dunkUTAH 106 – 109 WSH · WSH 61% → 72% +11WSH 61% → 72%+11 pts
- Q41:37Kyle Filipowski makes two point shot (Cody Williams assists)UTAH 115 – 118 WSH · UTAH 7% → 18% +11UTAH 7% → 18%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -5.5
- ML UTAH +165 / WSH -195
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1.5
- WSH 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.4 pts
- WSH: Elo 56.2%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- WSH -175
- UTAH +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 113.0 – 118.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1295 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −92 | −11 | UTAH: Missing Collin Sexton −32, Jaden Springer −4 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · WSH: Missing Richaun Holmes −10 (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | UTAH crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +44 Elo | WSH 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 60.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30112.3 | Points scored | 108.127th of 30 |
| 27th of 30119.7 | Points allowed | 120.629th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.4 | Margin | −12.530th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 104.430th of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 116.528th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.14th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–22 | Road vs home | 6–2530th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−92 Elo- Collin Sexton left ankle injury−32 Elo
- Jaden Springer lower back soreness−4 Elo
Wizards
−11 Elo- Richaun Holmes left knee contusion−10 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–29 | 27–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | — |
| Underdog | 31–28 | 27–33 |
| Overs–unders | 37–24 | 29–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–0 WSH in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.