Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints35
- LaMelo BallAssists10
- Mark WilliamsRebounds10
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints23
- Bam AdebayoAssists8
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–102
- Q41.0Heat offensive team rebound105–102
- Q41.2Tyler Herro misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot105–102
- Q43.1Mark Williams enters the game for Seth Curry105–102
- Q43.1DaQuan Jeffries enters the game for Nick Smith Jr.105–102
- Q43.1Duncan Robinson enters the game for Haywood Highsmith105–102
- Q43.1Nick Smith Jr. out of bounds lost ball turnover105–102
- Q45.0Nick Smith Jr. enters the game for Mark Williams105–102
- Q45.0Seth Curry enters the game for DaQuan Jeffries105–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:45Duncan Robinson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)CHA 91 – 94 MIA · MIA 57% → 80% +23MIA 57% → 80%+23 pts
- Q41:15Miles Bridges makes 26-foot three pointer (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 98 – 97 MIA · CHA 22% → 58% +36CHA 22% → 58%+36 pts
- Q41:00Tyler Herro makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Bam Adebayo assists)CHA 98 – 99 MIA · MIA 40% → 68% +28MIA 40% → 68%+28 pts
- Q441.1Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 101 – 99 MIA · CHA 30% → 78% +48CHA 30% → 78%+48 pts
- Q414.0Bam Adebayo makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)CHA 103 – 102 MIA · MIA <1% → 24% +24MIA <1% → 24%+24 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -9.5
- ML CHA +320 / MIA -425
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7.5
- MIA 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 76.4%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- MIA -340
- CHA +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 103.5 – 113.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 216.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1263 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | −14 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +204 Elo | MIA 76.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 73.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30105.3 | Points scored | 110.125th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.0 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−7.6 | Margin | −0.517th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 111.118th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 111.613th of 30 |
| 20th of 3099.7 | Pace | 97.630th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 30th of 305–24 | Road vs home | 15–1419th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 31–32 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–8 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 31–24 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 23–40 | 33–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–6 MIA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.