Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints26
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Zach CollinsRebounds15
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints22
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–109
- Q42.0Coby White defensive rebound114–109
- Q42.0Bam Adebayo misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot114–109
- Q45.1Tyler Herro defensive rebound114–109
- Q46.1Kevin Huerter misses free throw 2 of 2114–109
- Q46.1Kevin Huerter makes free throw 1 of 2114–109
- Q46.1Davion Mitchell personal foul113–109
- Q410.1Bulls Full timeout113–109
- Q410.1Bulls Full timeout113–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:17Tre Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 105 – 105 MIA · CHI 21% → 47% +26CHI 21% → 47%+26 pts
- Q41:45Tyler Herro makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotCHI 107 – 107 MIA · MIA 32% → 53% +21MIA 32% → 53%+21 pts
- Q41:25Coby White makes driving layup (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 109 – 107 MIA · CHI 48% → 71% +23CHI 48% → 71%+23 pts
- Q41:12Andrew Wiggins makes driving layupCHI 110 – 109 MIA · MIA 18% → 39% +22MIA 18% → 39%+22 pts
- Q416.1Josh Giddey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)CHI 113 – 109 MIA · CHI 75% → >99% +25CHI 75% → >99%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -5.5
- ML CHI +165 / MIA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -2
- MIA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 58.7%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -177
- CHI +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 110.0 – 115.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1411 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −12 | −14 | CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +61 Elo | MIA 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 62.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 110.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 110.57th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.2 | Margin | −0.417th of 30 |
| 19th of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 111.318th of 30 |
| 25th of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.5 | Pace | 97.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 15–1317th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–32 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–8 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 24–24 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 32–31 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–2 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.