Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Brandon WilliamsPoints19
- Klay ThompsonAssists7
- Spencer DinwiddieRebounds4
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints32
- De'Aaron FoxAssists11
- Devin VassellRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–126
- Q422.1De'Aaron Fox defensive rebound116–126
- Q424.1Naji Marshall misses 25-foot three point jumper116–126
- Q430.1Klay Thompson defensive rebound116–126
- Q433.0Jeremy Sochan misses 22-foot three point jumper116–126
- Q453.1Klay Thompson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Naji Marshall assists)116–126
- Q459.0Stephon Castle out of bounds bad pass turnover113–126
- Q41:18Dwight Powell makes 1-foot dunk (Klay Thompson assists)113–126
- Q41:29(01:29) [Mavericks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)111–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:35Max Christie makes 26-foot three point shot (Spencer Dinwiddie assists)DAL 58 – 50 SA · DAL 50% → 58% +8DAL 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q23:14Devin Vassell makes 24-foot three point jumper (De'Aaron Fox assists)DAL 58 – 53 SA · SA 42% → 50% +8SA 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q22:23Chris Paul makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Vassell assists)DAL 58 – 58 SA · SA 55% → 64% +8SA 55% → 64%+8 pts
- Q21:36Stephon Castle makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDAL 60 – 61 SA · SA 58% → 66% +8SA 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q37:18Chris Paul makes 25-foot three pointerDAL 73 – 77 SA · SA 65% → 73% +9SA 65% → 73%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -6.5
- ML DAL +200 / SA -240
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −16.0 pts
- SA: Elo 51.9%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- SA -212
- DAL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 115.5 – 122.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1407 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −91 | −18 | DAL: Missing Daniel Gafford −32, P.J. Washington −1 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · SA: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +13 Elo | SA 51.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 113.715th of 30 |
| 17th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 116.122nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.421st of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 111.916th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 114.324th of 30 |
| 16th of 30100.9 | Pace | 101.310th of 30 |
| 23rd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–18 | Road vs home | 15–1521st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−91 Elo- Daniel Gafford right knee sprain−32 Elo
- P.J. Washington right ankle sprain−1 Elo
Spurs
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–33 | 27–36 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–15 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 18–25 |
| Overs–unders | 33–33 | 36–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 7–0 SA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.