Orlando Magic at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints43
- Franz WagnerAssists4
- Paolo BancheroRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints28
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–118
- Q41.1Anthony Edwards defensive rebound111–118
- Q45.1Franz Wagner misses 25-foot three point jumper111–118
- Q412.1Julius Randle makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
- Q412.1Timberwolves offensive team rebound111–117
- Q412.1Julius Randle misses free throw 1 of 2111–117
- Q412.1Paolo Banchero personal take foul111–117
- Q414.2Paolo Banchero makes free throw 1 of 1111–117
- Q414.2Julius Randle shooting foul110–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:33Caleb Houstan makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Black assists)ORL 83 – 75 MIN · ORL 51% → 63% +12ORL 51% → 63%+12 pts
- Q49:12Jaden McDaniels makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)ORL 90 – 89 MIN · MIN 46% → 60% +14MIN 46% → 60%+14 pts
- Q44:15Jaden McDaniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Anthony Edwards assists)ORL 94 – 98 MIN · MIN 67% → 83% +16MIN 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q43:32Paolo Banchero makes two point shot (Franz Wagner assists)ORL 98 – 98 MIN · ORL 27% → 41% +14ORL 27% → 41%+14 pts
- Q43:09Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotORL 98 – 101 MIN · MIN 59% → 80% +21MIN 59% → 80%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML ORL +400 / MIN -550
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -11
- MIN 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 85.4%, market 80.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -423
- ORL +423 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 99.0 – 109.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 208.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1653 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | +32 | ORL: Missing Cole Anthony −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +307 Elo | MIN 85.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 75.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 76.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 80.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.4 | Points scored | 112.918th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.9 | Points allowed | 109.06th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +3.88th of 30 |
| 28th of 30106.5 | Offense rating | 113.410th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.0 | Defense rating | 109.57th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.7 | Pace | 99.024th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3013–20 | Road vs home | 18–1414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+5 Elo- Cole Anthony left toe−12 Elo
Timberwolves
+32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 32–35 | 31–36 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–17 | 19–29 |
| Underdog | 11–18 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 26–41 | 37–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.