Detroit Pistons at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints24
- Cade CunninghamAssists8
- Simone FontecchioRebounds7
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints30
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Yves MissiRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–81
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–81
- Q410.1Lindy Waters III lost ball turnover (Jeremiah Robinson-Earl steals)127–81
- Q431.0Lindy Waters III defensive rebound127–81
- Q434.1Antonio Reeves misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot127–81
- Q440.1Mo Bamba defensive rebound127–81
- Q444.1Marcus Sasser misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot127–81
- Q41:04Lindy Waters III defensive rebound127–81
- Q41:09Jordan Hawkins misses 24-foot three point step back jumpshot127–81
- Q41:18Paul Reed out of bounds bad pass turnover127–81
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:46Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 25-foot three point shot (Ausar Thompson assists)DET 4 – 0 NO · DET 70% → 75% +5DET 70% → 75%+5 pts
- Q110:32Kelly Olynyk makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)DET 4 – 3 NO · NO 25% → 30% +5NO 25% → 30%+5 pts
- Q110:02Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 8-foot layup (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 6 – 3 NO · DET 70% → 73% +4DET 70% → 73%+4 pts
- Q18:43Cade Cunningham makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Duren assists)DET 10 – 5 NO · DET 73% → 77% +3DET 73% → 77%+3 pts
- Q18:17Cade Cunningham makes 25-foot running pullup jump shotDET 13 – 5 NO · DET 77% → 81% +5DET 77% → 81%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DET -6.5
- ML DET -250 / NO +200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6
- DET 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.6 pts
- DET: Elo 71.8%, market 68.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -214
- NO +214 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 120.5 – 114.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +3 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +162 Elo | DET 71.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 67.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 68.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.8 | Points scored | 110.823rd of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.2 | Points allowed | 119.026th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −8.229th of 30 |
| 16th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.125th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 117.130th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.7 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 3019–15 | Road vs home | 12–2225th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–29 | 28–40 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–15 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 24–14 | 21–31 |
| Overs–unders | 34–34 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–2 NO in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.