Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints28
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds12
Trail Blazers- Anfernee SimonsPoints34
- Toumani CamaraAssists5
- Jabari WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–112
- Q40.0Trail Blazers offensive team rebound119–112
- Q40.0Anfernee Simons misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot119–112
- Q44.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 2 of 2119–112
- Q44.1Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2118–112
- Q44.1Anfernee Simons personal take foul117–112
- Q48.2Ausar Thompson defensive rebound117–112
- Q411.1Jerami Grant misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot117–112
- Q419.0Cade Cunningham makes free throw 2 of 2117–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:59Anfernee Simons makes 1-foot two point shotDET 109 – 105 POR · POR 9% → 19% +9POR 9% → 19%+9 pts
- Q42:40Tobias Harris makes 10-foot pullup jump shotDET 111 – 105 POR · DET 83% → 92% +9DET 83% → 92%+9 pts
- Q42:24Duop Reath makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)DET 111 – 108 POR · POR 7% → 23% +15POR 7% → 23%+15 pts
- Q42:06Dennis Schroder makes 5-foot driving floating jump shotDET 113 – 108 POR · DET 79% → 90% +12DET 79% → 90%+12 pts
- Q41:51Shaedon Sharpe makes driving layup (Duop Reath assists)DET 113 – 110 POR · POR 9% → 20% +12POR 9% → 20%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -3.5
- ML DET -160 / POR +135
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -0.5
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- DET: Elo 51.2%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -145
- POR +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 117.5 – 114.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +52 | +15 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Deni Avdija −11 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +8 Elo | DET 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 110.424th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 114.318th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −3.922nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 109.324th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 113.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.5 | Pace | 100.619th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 9th of 3018–15 | Road vs home | 16–1417th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+15 Elo- Deni Avdija left quad contusion−11 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–27 | 36–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 24–13 | 32–24 |
| Overs–unders | 33–31 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–1 POR in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.