Detroit Pistons at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists5
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints32
- Draymond GreenAssists7
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–115
- Q40.0Cade Cunningham lost ball turnover110–115
- Q43.0Kevon Looney enters the game for Stephen Curry110–115
- Q43.0Pistons Full timeout110–115
- Q43.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 2 of 2110–115
- Q43.0Stephen Curry makes free throw 1 of 2110–114
- Q43.0Cade Cunningham personal take foul110–113
- Q44.1Jimmy Butler III defensive rebound110–113
- Q47.0Malik Beasley misses 27-foot three point jumper110–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:23Malik Beasley makes 23-foot three point shot (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 101 – 100 GS · DET 31% → 54% +23DET 31% → 54%+23 pts
- Q41:22Jimmy Butler III makes 12-foot pullup jump shotDET 105 – 107 GS · GS 52% → 75% +23GS 52% → 75%+23 pts
- Q449.2Cade Cunningham makes two point shotDET 108 – 107 GS · DET 33% → 64% +31DET 33% → 64%+31 pts
- Q435.0Draymond Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jimmy Butler III assists)DET 108 – 110 GS · GS 33% → 84% +50GS 33% → 84%+50 pts
- Q417.1Cade Cunningham makes 3-foot driving dunkDET 110 – 111 GS · DET 2% → 24% +22DET 2% → 24%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- GS -5.5
- ML DET +170 / GS -200
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2
- GS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- GS: Elo 58.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- GS -180
- DET +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 115.5 – 121.0 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | +51 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | GS +57 Elo | GS 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points scored | 113.315th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.1 | Points allowed | 111.29th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.6 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.2 | Offense rating | 112.015th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.7 | Defense rating | 109.99th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.4 | Pace | 100.918th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 6th of 3018–14 | Road vs home | 17–1314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–27 | 34–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–14 | 21–19 |
| Underdog | 23–13 | 13–10 |
| Overs–unders | 33–30 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 0–3 GS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.