Oklahoma City Thunder at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints48
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds10
Pistons- Tobias HarrisPoints18
- Dennis SchroderAssists11
- Tobias HarrisRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–107
- Q46.1Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound113–107
- Q49.1Malik Beasley misses 31-foot three point pullup jump shot113–107
- Q413.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2113–107
- Q413.0Kenrich Williams enters the game for Isaiah Joe112–107
- Q413.0Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Ausar Thompson112–107
- Q413.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2112–107
- Q413.0Ausar Thompson personal foul111–107
- Q418.1Ausar Thompson makes 5-foot driving floating jump shot111–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:16Malik Beasley makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)OKC 98 – 97 DET · DET 22% → 40% +18DET 22% → 40%+18 pts
- Q43:58Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotOKC 101 – 97 DET · OKC 60% → 79% +19OKC 60% → 79%+19 pts
- Q43:40Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)OKC 101 – 100 DET · DET 20% → 39% +19DET 20% → 39%+19 pts
- Q42:48Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 9-foot two point shotOKC 104 – 100 DET · OKC 69% → 82% +13OKC 69% → 82%+13 pts
- Q41:33Cason Wallace makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 109 – 102 DET · OKC 89% → 98% +9OKC 89% → 98%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -4.5
- ML OKC -175 / DET +150
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -3.5
- OKC 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- OKC: Elo 63.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- OKC -159
- DET +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.5 – 113.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1731 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −18 | +55 | OKC: Missing Aaron Wiggins −11 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +97 Elo | OKC 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 115.011th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 113.214th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.1 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 112.316th of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.1 | Defense rating | 110.511th of 30 |
| 9th of 30101.6 | Pace | 101.78th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3025–7 | Road vs home | 18–1516th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−18 Elo- Aaron Wiggins illness−11 Elo
Pistons
+55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 42–25 | 39–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 40–24 | 15–15 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 39–28 | 34–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 1–1 DET in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.