Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Marcus SmartPoints16
- Jordan PooleAssists3
- Richaun HolmesRebounds8
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–123
- Q47.1Lindy Waters III bad pass (Justin Champagnie steals)103–123
- Q433.1Bub Carrington makes 28-foot three pointer (Anthony Gill assists)103–123
- Q440.1Justin Champagnie offensive rebound100–123
- Q441.1Anthony Gill misses 26-foot three point jumper100–123
- Q453.0Justin Champagnie defensive rebound100–123
- Q454.0Paul Reed misses 13-foot jumper100–123
- Q41:11Justin Champagnie makes layup (Anthony Gill assists)100–123
- Q41:20Ronald Holland II makes 3-foot two point shot (Lindy Waters III assists)98–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:19Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumperWSH 0 – 3 DET · DET 88% → 91% +3DET 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q110:23Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)WSH 0 – 6 DET · DET 91% → 93% +2DET 91% → 93%+2 pts
- Q16:30Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)WSH 8 – 11 DET · DET 87% → 90% +3DET 87% → 90%+3 pts
- Q12:52Tobias Harris makes 23-foot three point jumper (Malik Beasley assists)WSH 15 – 24 DET · DET 92% → 94% +2DET 92% → 94%+2 pts
- Q23:38Jordan Poole makes 29-foot three pointerWSH 47 – 55 DET · WSH 5% → 7% +2WSH 5% → 7%+2 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -14.5
- ML WSH +700 / DET -1200
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10
- DET 83%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- DET: Elo 83.2%, market 88.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -738
- WSH +738 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 124.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1301 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +48 | +54 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | DET crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +278 Elo | DET 83.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 81.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 82.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 88.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.4 | Points scored | 114.712th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 113.115th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.1 | Margin | +1.613th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 112.115th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 110.511th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.1 | Pace | 101.59th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–36th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–24 | Road vs home | 17–1416th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+48 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–35 | 38–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 14–14 |
| Underdog | 28–34 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–32 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–3 DET in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.