Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints16
- AJ JohnsonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Raptors- A.J. LawsonPoints32
- RJ BarrettAssists8
- Scottie BarnesRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–119
- Q411.2shot clock turnover104–119
- Q431.1Colin Castleton defensive rebound104–119
- Q433.1JT Thor misses tip shot104–119
- Q434.1JT Thor offensive rebound104–119
- Q439.1AJ Johnson misses 25-foot three point shot104–119
- Q442.1Jaylen Martin defensive rebound104–119
- Q446.1A.J. Lawson misses 24-foot three point jumper104–119
- Q41:09Colin Castleton defensive rebound104–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:04Corey Kispert makes 25-foot three point jumper (AJ Johnson assists)WSH 46 – 44 TOR · WSH 32% → 39% +7WSH 32% → 39%+7 pts
- Q225.1JT Thor makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 60 – 59 TOR · WSH 31% → 39% +8WSH 31% → 39%+8 pts
- Q37:12Jordan Poole makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kyshawn George assists)WSH 67 – 71 TOR · WSH 19% → 26% +7WSH 19% → 26%+7 pts
- Q36:30A.J. Lawson makes 22-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)WSH 67 – 74 TOR · TOR 74% → 82% +7TOR 74% → 82%+7 pts
- Q34:56A.J. Lawson makes 24-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)WSH 72 – 80 TOR · TOR 77% → 84% +7TOR 77% → 84%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -6.5
- ML WSH +210 / TOR -260
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -8
- TOR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.9 pts
- TOR: Elo 78.0%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -224
- WSH +224 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.0 – 119.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1306 | 1404 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −40 | +46 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +220 Elo | TOR 78.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 73.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.5 | Points scored | 110.623rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.5 | Points allowed | 116.022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.0 | Margin | −5.425th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.8 | Offense rating | 108.626th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 113.923rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 15th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–615th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–23 | Road vs home | 14–2023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+46 Elo- Jakob Poeltl rest−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–34 | 38–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 28–33 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 31–31 | 33–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.