Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Jordan PoolePoints34
- Jordan PooleAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds14
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Jamal SheadAssists9
- RJ BarrettRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–117
- Q40.0(00:00) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)118–117
- Q42.1Raptors Full timeout118–117
- Q42.1Marcus Smart enters the game for Jordan Poole118–117
- Q42.1Raptors Full timeout118–117
- Q42.1(00:02.3) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)118–117
- Q42.1Jamal Shead defensive rebound118–117
- Q46.0Khris Middleton misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot118–117
- Q429.0Jamal Shead makes 1-foot two point shot118–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:42Bub Carrington makes 25-foot three pointer (Richaun Holmes assists)WSH 100 – 96 TOR · WSH 49% → 63% +14WSH 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q47:04Jordan Poole makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bilal Coulibaly assists)WSH 105 – 100 TOR · WSH 56% → 71% +15WSH 56% → 71%+15 pts
- Q41:57Orlando Robinson makes 2-foot layup (Jamal Shead assists)WSH 116 – 114 TOR · TOR 17% → 32% +16TOR 17% → 32%+16 pts
- Q446.1Khris Middleton makes 9-foot two point shotWSH 118 – 115 TOR · WSH 65% → 88% +24WSH 65% → 88%+24 pts
- Q429.0Jamal Shead makes 1-foot two point shotWSH 118 – 117 TOR · TOR 6% → 31% +25TOR 6% → 31%+25 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -4.5
- ML WSH +150 / TOR -180
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -5.5
- TOR 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 70.2%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -161
- WSH +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 111.5 – 116.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1300 | 1410 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +10 | +53 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Missing Immanuel Quickley −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +149 Elo | TOR 70.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 67.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 68.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 110.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 116.022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.3 | Margin | −5.525th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.6 | Offense rating | 108.526th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 113.924th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.2 | Pace | 101.015th of 30 |
| 21st of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 29th of 305–23 | Road vs home | 14–1923rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+53 Elo- Immanuel Quickley rest−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–34 | 38–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 4–3 |
| Underdog | 27–33 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–4 TOR in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.