Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints34
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Chet HolmgrenRebounds15
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints33
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Al HorfordRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–112
- Q43.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound118–112
- Q45.0Jayson Tatum misses 23-foot three point shot118–112
- Q46.2Celtics Full timeout118–112
- Q46.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 2 of 2118–112
- Q46.2Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes free throw 1 of 2117–112
- Q46.2Sam Hauser personal take foul116–112
- Q48.1Payton Pritchard makes 28-foot running pullup jump shot116–112
- Q414.1Jayson Tatum defensive rebound116–109
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:06Sam Hauser makes 22-foot three point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)OKC 86 – 85 BOS · BOS 38% → 50% +12BOS 38% → 50%+12 pts
- Q48:51Derrick White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)OKC 95 – 95 BOS · BOS 39% → 53% +14BOS 39% → 53%+14 pts
- Q48:30Isaiah Joe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kenrich Williams assists)OKC 98 – 95 BOS · OKC 47% → 61% +15OKC 47% → 61%+15 pts
- Q48:12Al Horford makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jayson Tatum assists)OKC 98 – 98 BOS · BOS 38% → 53% +15BOS 38% → 53%+15 pts
- Q47:51Kenrich Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)OKC 101 – 98 BOS · OKC 47% → 62% +15OKC 47% → 62%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -2.5
- ML OKC +130 / BOS -150
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- BOS 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- BOS: Elo 44.4%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -138
- OKC +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 113.0 – 115.5 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1724 | 1689 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +34 | −18 | OKC: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | OKC crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +39 Elo | OKC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 50.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30119.1 | Points scored | 116.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.9 | Points allowed | 108.23rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+12.2 | Margin | +8.73rd of 30 |
| 5th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30105.0 | Defense rating | 109.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 30101.6 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–23rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3024–7 | Road vs home | 23–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–25 | 30–35 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 40–24 | 29–33 |
| Underdog | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 38–28 | 29–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.