Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints34
- LeBron JamesAssists9
- LeBron JamesRebounds14
Celtics- Jayson TatumPoints40
- Jayson TatumAssists8
- Jayson TatumRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–111
- Q41.1shot clock turnover101–111
- Q425.1Gabe Vincent makes 2-foot two point shot101–111
- Q437.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 2 of 299–111
- Q437.1Trey Jemison III enters the game for Jarred Vanderbilt99–110
- Q437.1Gabe Vincent enters the game for Luka Doncic99–110
- Q437.1Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Austin Reaves99–110
- Q437.1Luke Kornet enters the game for Al Horford99–110
- Q437.1Jayson Tatum makes free throw 1 of 299–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:31Payton Pritchard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)LAL 52 – 51 BOS · BOS 53% → 61% +8BOS 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q21:12Jayson Tatum makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 54 – 56 BOS · BOS 61% → 69% +8BOS 61% → 69%+8 pts
- Q45:47Dalton Knecht makes 27-foot three point shot (Luka Doncic assists)LAL 90 – 96 BOS · LAL 7% → 14% +8LAL 7% → 14%+8 pts
- Q44:36Luka Doncic makes 27-foot three point shotLAL 95 – 99 BOS · LAL 9% → 21% +11LAL 9% → 21%+11 pts
- Q44:08Jaylen Brown makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 95 – 102 BOS · BOS 80% → 92% +11BOS 80% → 92%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -6.5
- ML LAL +200 / BOS -245
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -1.5
- BOS 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- BOS: Elo 57.0%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- BOS -213
- LAL +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 109.5 – 116.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1638 | 1679 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +36 | −27 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · BOS: Missing Kristaps Porzingis −12 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −36 | — | LAL crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | BOS +49 Elo | BOS 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 70.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30113.1 | Points scored | 117.06th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 108.33rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.0 | Margin | +8.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.3 | Defense rating | 109.05th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.5 | Pace | 98.526th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 21–1110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Celtics
−27 Elo- Kristaps Porzingis illness−12 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–25 | 29–34 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 28–33 | 29–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 BOS in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.