Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BOS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- John CollinsPoints28
- Collin SextonAssists13
- John CollinsRebounds10
Celtics- Sam HauserPoints33
- Derrick WhiteAssists10
- Jaylen BrownRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–114
- Q413.1John Collins lost ball turnover (Jrue Holiday steals)108–114
- Q415.2Johnny Juzang enters the game for Walker Kessler108–114
- Q415.2Jazz Full timeout108–114
- Q415.2Jaylen Brown makes free throw 2 of 2108–114
- Q415.2Sam Hauser enters the game for Luke Kornet108–113
- Q415.2Jaylen Brown makes free throw 1 of 2108–113
- Q415.2John Collins personal take foul108–112
- Q418.1Celtics Full timeout108–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:14Jaylen Brown makes 7-foot driving floating jump shot (Derrick White assists)UTAH 98 – 103 BOS · BOS 81% → 89% +8BOS 81% → 89%+8 pts
- Q43:57John Collins makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Sexton assists)UTAH 101 – 103 BOS · UTAH 11% → 24% +14UTAH 11% → 24%+14 pts
- Q43:21Walker Kessler makes 2-foot hook shot (Brice Sensabaugh assists)UTAH 103 – 103 BOS · UTAH 24% → 38% +14UTAH 24% → 38%+14 pts
- Q42:51Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)UTAH 103 – 107 BOS · BOS 69% → 87% +18BOS 69% → 87%+18 pts
- Q41:37Jaylen Brown makes driving dunkUTAH 104 – 109 BOS · BOS 86% → 95% +9BOS 86% → 95%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Celtics 88%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- BOS -15.5
- ML UTAH +700 / BOS -1100
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS -11
- BOS 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- BOS: Elo 85.7%, market 88.0%
- Fair odds
- BOS -733
- UTAH +733 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 107.5 – 123.0 BOS
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1376 | 1687 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | UTAH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −3 | −79 | UTAH: Missing Lauri Markkanen −33 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BOS: Missing Jayson Tatum −69, Al Horford −5 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +311 Elo | BOS 85.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 90.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 89.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 88.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 117.06th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 108.23rd of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +8.83rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 117.83rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30117.0 | Defense rating | 109.05th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.8 | Pace | 98.527th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–25 | Road vs home | 22–119th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−3 Elo- Lauri Markkanen lower back injury−33 Elo
Celtics
−79 Elo- Jayson Tatum right knee injury−69 Elo
- Al Horford sprained left big toe−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 33–30 | 30–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 29–32 |
| Underdog | 33–29 | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 39–25 | 29–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 0–2 BOS in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 2.