Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints19
- Khris MiddletonAssists8
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds9
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints38
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–125
- Q41.1Marcus Smart defensive rebound129–125
- Q44.1Tim Hardaway Jr. misses 32-foot three point jumper129–125
- Q45.1Pistons Full timeout129–125
- Q45.1Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2129–125
- Q45.1Wizards offensive team rebound128–125
- Q45.1Marcus Smart misses free throw 1 of 2128–125
- Q45.1Jalen Duren personal take foul128–125
- Q46.1Marcus Smart defensive rebound128–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:50Kyshawn George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 121 – 121 DET · WSH 16% → 42% +26WSH 16% → 42%+26 pts
- Q41:17Kyshawn George makes 27-foot three point jumper (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 124 – 123 DET · WSH 21% → 56% +35WSH 21% → 56%+35 pts
- Q41:05Jalen Duren makes tip shotWSH 124 – 125 DET · DET 43% → 69% +27DET 43% → 69%+27 pts
- Q453.1Alex Sarr makes 3-foot dunk (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 126 – 125 DET · WSH 30% → 60% +30WSH 30% → 60%+30 pts
- Q410.1Bub Carrington makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 127 – 125 DET · WSH 79% → 96% +16WSH 79% → 96%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- DET -13.5
- ML WSH +550 / DET -900
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -10.5
- DET 84%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- DET: Elo 84.0%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- DET -585
- WSH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 124.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1297 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +42 | +53 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +289 Elo | DET 84.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 85.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 84.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30108.3 | Points scored | 114.812th of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.6 | Points allowed | 112.914th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−12.2 | Margin | +1.912th of 30 |
| 30th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 28th of 30116.5 | Defense rating | 110.410th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.1 | Pace | 101.68th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–25 | Road vs home | 18–1414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 28–36 | 39–27 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 28–35 | 24–13 |
| Overs–unders | 31–33 | 33–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–4 DET in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.