Indiana Pacers at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Obi ToppinPoints34
- T.J. McConnellAssists13
- Obi ToppinRebounds10
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints38
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Nickeil Alexander-WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game132–130
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime132–130
- OT0.0Timberwolves offensive team rebound132–130
- OT0.1Julius Randle misses 11-foot two point shot132–130
- OT3.1Naz Reid enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker132–130
- OT3.1Mike Conley enters the game for Jaden McDaniels132–130
- OT3.1Timberwolves Full timeout132–130
- OT3.1(00:03.5) [Pacers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)132–130
- OT3.1Obi Toppin makes 22-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)132–130
- OT18.1Nickeil Alexander-Walker enters the game for Mike Conley129–130
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q449.0Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)IND 115 – 115 MIN · MIN 14% → 55% +41MIN 14% → 55%+41 pts
- Q44.1T.J. McConnell makes driving layupIND 117 – 117 MIN · IND <1% → 49% +48IND <1% → 49%+48 pts
- OT2:00Mike Conley makes 27-foot jump bank shot (Anthony Edwards assists)IND 123 – 126 MIN · MIN 57% → 83% +26MIN 57% → 83%+26 pts
- OT27.1Obi Toppin makes 25-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 129 – 128 MIN · IND 12% → 67% +55IND 12% → 67%+55 pts
- OT3.1Obi Toppin makes 22-foot three point shot (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 132 – 130 MIN · IND 5% → >99% +95IND 5% → >99%+95 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML IND +425 / MIN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -9
- MIN 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- MIN: Elo 81.3%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -455
- IND +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 108.5 – 119.0 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1658 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −112 | +35 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +255 Elo | MIN 81.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 72.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 73.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.3 | Points scored | 113.118th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 108.96th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +4.28th of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 113.510th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 109.36th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 99.123rd of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 13th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 20–1414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–36 | 32–37 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–23 | 20–30 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 35–31 | 38–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 0–2 MIN in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.