Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Myles TurnerPoints15
- Quenton JacksonAssists5
- Johnny FurphyRebounds8
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints29
- Tre JonesAssists8
- Nikola VucevicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–121
- Q424.0Quenton Jackson makes 26-foot three pointer (RayJ Dennis assists)103–121
- Q428.2Pacers offensive team rebound100–121
- Q428.2Matas Buzelis blocks Jarace Walker 's 3-foot driving layup100–121
- Q434.1Quenton Jackson defensive rebound100–121
- Q436.1Jevon Carter misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot100–121
- Q449.1Quenton Jackson makes driving layup (Jarace Walker assists)100–121
- Q41:02Matas Buzelis makes 1-foot layup (Jevon Carter assists)98–121
- Q41:14Talen Horton-Tucker defensive rebound98–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:30Aaron Nesmith makes 27-foot three pointer (Myles Turner assists)IND 35 – 34 CHI · IND 54% → 61% +7IND 54% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:11Zach Collins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Coby White assists)IND 35 – 37 CHI · CHI 39% → 46% +7CHI 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q27:37Coby White makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)IND 35 – 40 CHI · CHI 46% → 54% +8CHI 46% → 54%+8 pts
- Q24:56Myles Turner makes 25-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 38 – 46 CHI · IND 30% → 37% +7IND 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q21:47Coby White makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 45 – 57 CHI · CHI 67% → 74% +7CHI 67% → 74%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- IND -3.5
- ML IND -175 / CHI +145
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -2.5
- IND 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- IND: Elo 60.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -156
- CHI +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 121.5 – 118.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1420 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −6 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +76 Elo | IND 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 116.610th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 120.630th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −4.023rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30114.6 | Offense rating | 111.021st of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.4 | Defense rating | 114.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 30101.1 | Pace | 104.53rd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 11–2226th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–32 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 18–20 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders | 34–28 | 32–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–3 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.