Indiana Pacers at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints27
- Tyrese HaliburtonAssists10
- Obi ToppinRebounds8
76ers- Jeff Dowtin Jr.Points24
- Jeff Dowtin Jr.Assists4
- Guerschon YabuseleRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–100
- Q416.0shot clock turnover112–100
- Q438.0Obi Toppin defensive rebound112–100
- Q441.0Jared Butler misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot112–100
- Q453.2Obi Toppin makes 2-foot dunk (Quenton Jackson assists)112–100
- Q459.1Ricky Council IV lost ball turnover (Johnny Furphy steals)110–100
- Q41:02Jared Butler defensive rebound110–100
- Q41:05Ben Sheppard misses 33-foot three point jumper110–100
- Q41:21Ben Sheppard defensive rebound110–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:49Ricky Council IV makes 26-foot three point jumper (Guerschon Yabusele assists)IND 27 – 43 PHI · PHI 53% → 61% +8PHI 53% → 61%+8 pts
- Q25:18Myles Turner makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 30 – 43 PHI · IND 39% → 47% +8IND 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q21:44Jared Butler makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 40 – 48 PHI · PHI 35% → 43% +8PHI 35% → 43%+8 pts
- Q219.1Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 47 – 51 PHI · IND 58% → 66% +8IND 58% → 66%+8 pts
- Q39:46Tyrese Haliburton makes 27-foot three pointer (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 54 – 53 PHI · IND 70% → 77% +8IND 70% → 77%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- IND -12.5
- ML IND -800 / PHI +500
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -6.5
- IND 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.9 pts
- IND: Elo 73.3%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- IND -533
- PHI +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 123.0 – 110.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1546 | 1375 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +9 | −33 | IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −44, Andre Drummond −6 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +176 Elo | IND 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 69.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 70.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30116.4 | Points scored | 109.426th of 30 |
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 114.416th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −5.025th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.3 | Offense rating | 110.022nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.3 | Defense rating | 115.026th of 30 |
| 11th of 30101.2 | Pace | 98.826th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–826th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–18 | Road vs home | 12–2125th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
−33 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back injury−44 Elo
- Andre Drummond sprained left toe−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 30–34 | 23–42 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–22 | 6–18 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 17–24 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 38–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–2 PHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.