Philadelphia 76ers at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Quentin GrimesPoints29
- Jared ButlerAssists8
- Adem BonaRebounds9
Raptors- A.J. LawsonPoints28
- Garrett TempleAssists8
- Colin CastletonRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–118
- Q412.1shot clock turnover105–118
- Q435.2Jared Rhoden defensive rebound105–118
- Q438.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. misses 11-foot step back jumpshot105–118
- Q449.1A.J. Lawson makes two point shot (Jared Rhoden assists)105–118
- Q41:13Adem Bona makes two point shot105–116
- Q41:14Adem Bona offensive rebound103–116
- Q41:15Adem Bona misses two point shot103–116
- Q41:16Adem Bona offensive rebound103–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q29:19Garrett Temple makes 22-foot three point jumper (Colin Castleton assists)PHI 29 – 35 TOR · TOR 63% → 70% +7TOR 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q33:08Ricky Council IV makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jeff Dowtin Jr. assists)PHI 77 – 84 TOR · PHI 15% → 23% +8PHI 15% → 23%+8 pts
- Q32:37A.J. Lawson makes 25-foot jump bank shot (Colin Castleton assists)PHI 77 – 87 TOR · TOR 77% → 85% +8TOR 77% → 85%+8 pts
- Q31:08Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotPHI 84 – 89 TOR · PHI 19% → 28% +9PHI 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q328.1Jeff Dowtin Jr. makes 10-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 86 – 89 TOR · PHI 28% → 35% +7PHI 28% → 35%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML PHI +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -5.5
- TOR 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +14.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 70.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- PHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 110.0 – 112.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 222.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1382 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −82 | +10 | PHI: Missing Tyrese Maxey −38 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · TOR: Missing Scottie Barnes −27, Immanuel Quickley −21, Brandon Ingram −19 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +155 Elo | TOR 70.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30109.5 | Points scored | 110.723rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.4 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.9 | Margin | −5.125th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.2 | Offense rating | 108.726th of 30 |
| 26th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 113.723rd of 30 |
| 26th of 3098.6 | Pace | 101.014th of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3010–21 | Road vs home | 15–2023rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
−82 Elo- Tyrese Maxey lower back injury−38 Elo
Raptors
+10 Elo- Scottie Barnes right hand sprain−27 Elo
- Immanuel Quickley rest−21 Elo
- Brandon Ingram left ankle sprain−19 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–41 | 39–26 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 34–22 |
| Overs–unders | 37–27 | 33–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–2 TOR in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.