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Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-1

Away

Bucks

36-28

114–115

at

Home

Pacers

36-28

MIL 46%IND 54%

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Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.

IND favored MIL favored115 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4IND50%MIL

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Bucks
Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game114–115
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–115
  • Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound114–115
  • Q40.0Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot114–115
  • Q43.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 1114–115
  • Q43.1Damian Lillard enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.114–114
  • Q43.1Ben Sheppard enters the game for Myles Turner114–114
  • Q43.1Bucks Full timeout114–114
  • Q43.1(00:03.4) [Bucks] COACH'S CHALLENGE (CALL STANDS) [Bucks] charged with a timeout114–114
  • Q43.1Giannis Antetokounmpo shooting foul114–114

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q43:51Andrew Nembhard makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)MIL 105 – 108 IND · IND 51% → 72% +21
  2. Q41:51Taurean Prince makes 6-foot driving floating jump shotMIL 109 – 110 IND · MIL 21% → 39% +18
  3. Q41:07Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 112 – 110 IND · MIL 36% → 75% +39
  4. Q43.1Tyrese Haliburton makes 22-foot three point shot (Andrew Nembhard assists)MIL 114 – 114 IND · IND <1% → 50% +50
  5. Q43.1Tyrese Haliburton makes free throw 1 of 1MIL 114 – 115 IND · IND 50% → 94% +44

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Pacers 54%

Toss-upHit
MIL 46%IND 54%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.

Market
IND -1.5
ML MIL +110 / IND -130
Pre-line forecast
IND 44%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL -1
IND 46%
Ratings vs. market
−7.8 pts
IND: Elo 46.4%, market 54.3%
Fair odds
IND -119
MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
MIL 118.0 – 119.5 IND
Posted spread, posted total 237.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorMILINDWhy
Team rating15691541Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest—−40IND on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups−2+4MIL: Usual rotation · IND: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Travel−12−12MIL crossed 1 time zone and IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag
Elo ratingsMIL +25 EloMIL 53.6%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 56.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 56.2%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastIND 54.3%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers compared, with each team's league rank
MILStatIND
14th of 30114.3Points scored116.410th of 30
12th of 30112.0Points allowed115.420th of 30
9th of 30+2.3Margin+1.015th of 30
13th of 30112.8Offense rating114.29th of 30
11th of 30110.5Defense rating113.318th of 30
13th of 30101.1Pace101.211th of 30
6th of 307–3Last 105–511th of 30
15th of 3014–16Road vs home19–98th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Bucks

−2 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Pacers

+4 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

BucksPacers
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonMILIND
Against the spread31–3330–33
Last 106–45–5
Favorite22–2318–21
Underdog9–1012–12
Overs–unders32–3234–29
Overs–unders, last 105–53–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

MIL 5–8 IND in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.