Cleveland Cavaliers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Max StrusPoints17
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Max StrusRebounds9
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints30
- Damian LillardAssists4
- Jericho SimsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–100
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–100
- Q41.0Ryan Rollins makes 3-foot two point shot112–100
- Q410.1Ryan Rollins defensive rebound112–98
- Q413.1Tristan Thompson misses 8-foot two point shot112–98
- Q437.1Ryan Rollins makes 12-foot step back jumpshot112–98
- Q447.1Javonte Green makes 23-foot three pointer (Jaylon Tyson assists)112–96
- Q41:11Chris Livingston makes two point shot109–96
- Q41:15Craig Porter Jr. lost ball turnover (Chris Livingston steals)109–94
- Q41:28Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)109–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:53De'Andre Hunter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ty Jerome assists)CLE 79 – 72 MIL · CLE 75% → 83% +8CLE 75% → 83%+8 pts
- Q37.1Sam Merrill makes 27-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 84 – 74 MIL · CLE 84% → 90% +6CLE 84% → 90%+6 pts
- Q410:49Sam Merrill makes 26-foot three pointer (De'Andre Hunter assists)CLE 87 – 79 MIL · CLE 79% → 87% +8CLE 79% → 87%+8 pts
- Q48:55Kyle Kuzma makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jericho Sims assists)CLE 89 – 84 MIL · MIL 12% → 20% +9MIL 12% → 20%+9 pts
- Q48:34Donovan Mitchell makes 29-foot three pointerCLE 92 – 84 MIL · CLE 80% → 89% +9CLE 80% → 89%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -7.5
- ML CLE -270 / MIL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -7
- CLE 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 75.1%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -234
- MIL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 124.5 – 117.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1709 | 1574 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +60 | +8 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +192 Elo | CLE 75.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 72.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30123.1 | Points scored | 114.612th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+11.4 | Margin | +2.69th of 30 |
| 1st of 30120.6 | Offense rating | 113.012th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.5 | Defense rating | 110.510th of 30 |
| 5th of 30101.8 | Pace | 101.112th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 1st of 3024–6 | Road vs home | 21–107th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+60 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–22 | 31–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 37–20 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 9–9 |
| Overs–unders | 41–22 | 32–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–2 MIL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.