Skip to content
ShadowCryptsPredictions
Live
NBA games
Updated

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast

FinalIND wins series 4-1

Away

Pacers

37-29

119–126

at

Home

Bucks

38-28

IND 41%MIL 59%

You didn't pick this one.

Fiserv Forum · FanDuel SN WI, FanDuel SN IN, NBA League Pass

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.

MIL favored IND favored124 scoring plays
Q1Q2Q3Q4MIL50%IND

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Pacers

Last plays

  • Q40.0End of Game119–126
  • Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–126
  • Q41.1Pascal Siakam bad pass (Kyle Kuzma steals)119–126
  • Q43.1Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2119–126
  • Q43.1Kevin Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2119–125
  • Q43.1Aaron Nesmith personal take foul119–124
  • Q44.1Kevin Porter Jr. defensive rebound119–124
  • Q45.0Pascal Siakam misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot119–124
  • Q410.0Taurean Prince makes free throw 2 of 2119–124
  • Q410.0Jericho Sims enters the game for Brook Lopez119–123

Turning points

The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.

  1. Q14:56Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three pointer (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)IND 20 – 20 MIL · MIL 51% → 58% +7
  2. Q227.1Pascal Siakam makes 27-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 60 – 65 MIL · IND 23% → 30% +7
  3. Q310:23Aaron Nesmith makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 65 – 71 MIL · IND 20% → 27% +7
  4. Q37:45Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)IND 72 – 77 MIL · IND 21% → 29% +8
  5. Q36:55Damian Lillard makes 29-foot three pointer (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)IND 72 – 80 MIL · MIL 71% → 79% +8

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Bucks 59%

LeanHit
IND 41%MIL 59%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.

Market
MIL -3.5
ML IND +135 / MIL -155
Pre-line forecast
MIL 59%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
MIL -3.5
MIL 64%
Ratings vs. market
+4.9 pts
MIL: Elo 63.7%, market 58.8%
Fair odds
MIL -143
IND +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
IND 116.5 – 120.0 MIL
Posted spread, posted total 236.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorINDMILWhy
Team rating15511580Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+36Worth 36 Elo in the NBA
Rest−40—IND on the second night of a back-to-back
Lineups+15+8IND: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score)
Elo ratingsMIL +98 EloMIL 63.7%
Market-implied ratingsMIL 58.2%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastMIL 58.8%10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastMIL 58.8%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.

Try another venue →
Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks compared, with each team's league rank
INDStatMIL
9th of 30116.3Points scored114.513th of 30
19th of 30115.2Points allowed112.012th of 30
14th of 30+1.2Margin+2.510th of 30
8th of 30114.3Offense rating112.913th of 30
16th of 30113.2Defense rating110.410th of 30
13th of 30101.1Pace101.112th of 30
14th of 305–5Last 106–47th of 30
13th of 3016–18Road vs home22–119th of 30

Who's playing

Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.

All player ratings →

Pacers

+15 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Bucks

+8 Elo

Full strength: nobody who matters sat out.

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

PacersBucks
1300140015001600league averageNovJanMarMayJulSepNov

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonINDMIL
Against the spread30–3533–33
Last 103–77–3
Favorite18–2323–23
Underdog12–1210–10
Overs–unders34–3133–33
Overs–unders, last 102–86–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

IND 9–5 MIL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 14.