Los Angeles Lakers at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints45
- Luka DoncicAssists3
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints24
- Damian LillardAssists10
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–126
- Q42.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound106–126
- Q45.0Dalton Knecht misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot106–126
- Q48.1shot clock turnover106–126
- Q432.1Jericho Sims defensive rebound106–126
- Q433.0Markieff Morris misses free throw 2 of 2106–126
- Q433.0Markieff Morris makes free throw 1 of 2106–126
- Q433.0Ryan Rollins shooting foul105–126
- Q440.1Jordan Goodwin defensive rebound105–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q25:43Luka Doncic makes 23-foot three point shotLAL 48 – 50 MIL · LAL 25% → 32% +7LAL 25% → 32%+7 pts
- Q24:44Kevin Porter Jr. makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)LAL 48 – 53 MIL · MIL 68% → 75% +7MIL 68% → 75%+7 pts
- Q213.1Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)LAL 63 – 71 MIL · MIL 75% → 81% +6MIL 75% → 81%+6 pts
- Q310:01Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three point jumper (Damian Lillard assists)LAL 67 – 76 MIL · MIL 77% → 84% +6MIL 77% → 84%+6 pts
- Q39:47Dorian Finney-Smith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 70 – 76 MIL · LAL 16% → 22% +6LAL 16% → 22%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML LAL +190 / MIL -225
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- MIL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.0%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- MIL -201
- LAL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 110.0 – 116.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1619 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −39 | +1 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +21 Elo | MIL 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 114.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 112.012th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +2.39th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 112.813th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 110.611th of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 101.114th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 21–1110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–27 | 32–33 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–17 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 10–10 |
| Overs–unders | 29–34 | 32–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–0 MIL in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 2.