Los Angeles Lakers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Gabe VincentPoints24
- Luka DoncicAssists12
- Luka DoncicRebounds12
Nets- Noah ClowneyPoints19
- D'Angelo RussellAssists7
- Ziaire WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–111
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–111
- Q40.0Nets defensive team rebound108–111
- Q41.0Luka Doncic misses 76-foot three point pullup jump shot108–111
- Q42.1Luka Doncic defensive rebound108–111
- Q42.1Cameron Johnson misses free throw 2 of 2108–111
- Q42.1Nets offensive team rebound108–111
- Q42.1Cameron Johnson misses free throw 1 of 2108–111
- Q42.1Gabe Vincent personal foul108–111
- Q43.0D'Angelo Russell enters the game for Nic Claxton108–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:24Dalton Knecht makes 25-foot three point shot (Austin Reaves assists)LAL 85 – 87 BKN · LAL 34% → 48% +14LAL 34% → 48%+14 pts
- Q47:24Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumperLAL 85 – 90 BKN · BKN 54% → 69% +15BKN 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q43:30Nic Claxton makes driving layupLAL 95 – 99 BKN · BKN 61% → 75% +14BKN 61% → 75%+14 pts
- Q41:49Gabe Vincent makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 98 – 101 BKN · LAL 6% → 23% +17LAL 6% → 23%+17 pts
- Q41:31D'Angelo Russell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cameron Johnson assists)LAL 98 – 104 BKN · BKN 79% → 95% +16BKN 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML LAL -220 / BKN +180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -7.5
- LAL 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.9 pts
- LAL: Elo 76.7%, market 65.8%
- Fair odds
- LAL -192
- BKN +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 111.5 – 106.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1630 | 1366 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | −14 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Missing Trendon Watford −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +207 Elo | LAL 76.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 75.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 75.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 65.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30112.9 | Points scored | 105.129th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.1 | Points allowed | 111.611th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −6.526th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 107.127th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.4 | Defense rating | 113.722nd of 30 |
| 21st of 3099.4 | Pace | 97.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 308–2 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–15 | Road vs home | 9–2127th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−14 Elo- Trendon Watford left hamstring - injury management−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–26 | 33–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–16 | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 16–10 | 29–24 |
| Overs–unders | 28–34 | 27–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 2–1 BKN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.