Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Isaiah CollierAssists6
- Walker KesslerRebounds19
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints41
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists7
- Jaden McDanielsRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–128
- Q40.1Jazz offensive team rebound102–128
- Q41.1Collin Sexton misses 21-foot pullup jump shot102–128
- Q419.1shot clock turnover102–128
- Q441.1Cody Williams enters the game for Isaiah Collier102–128
- Q441.1Jazz Full timeout102–128
- Q442.1Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound102–128
- Q445.1Walker Kessler misses 24-foot three point jumper102–128
- Q454.1Isaiah Collier offensive rebound102–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:36Lauri Markkanen makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Collier assists)UTAH 3 – 2 MIN · UTAH 13% → 16% +4UTAH 13% → 16%+4 pts
- Q19:28Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaden McDaniels assists)UTAH 3 – 9 MIN · MIN 88% → 91% +3MIN 88% → 91%+3 pts
- Q18:55Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)UTAH 5 – 12 MIN · MIN 89% → 92% +3MIN 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q29:58Svi Mykhailiuk makes 24-foot three pointer (Johnny Juzang assists)UTAH 30 – 36 MIN · UTAH 7% → 10% +3UTAH 7% → 10%+3 pts
- Q28:24Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)UTAH 32 – 41 MIN · MIN 89% → 92% +3MIN 89% → 92%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 85%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -13.5
- ML UTAH +550 / MIN -900
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 88%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -13
- MIN 89%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 89.3%, market 85.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -585
- UTAH +585 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 109.0 – 122.5 MIN
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1362 | 1655 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +36 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | UTAH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +369 Elo | MIN 89.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 88.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 88.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 85.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.6 | Points scored | 112.918th of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.9 | Points allowed | 109.06th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | +3.98th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 113.410th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.8 | Defense rating | 109.57th of 30 |
| 5th of 30102.0 | Pace | 99.023rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 8–24th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–27 | Road vs home | 19–1414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Timberwolves
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–31 | 31–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 19–30 |
| Underdog | 35–29 | 12–7 |
| Overs–unders | 40–27 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–5 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 6.