Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Collin SextonPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists7
- Walker KesslerRebounds14
Grizzlies- Luke KennardPoints30
- Desmond BaneAssists9
- Lamar StevensRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–122
- Q40.1Scotty Pippen Jr. makes two point shot (Ja Morant assists)115–122
- Q42.0Ja Morant defensive rebound115–120
- Q47.0Lauri Markkanen misses 25-foot three point jumper115–120
- Q411.1Isaiah Collier enters the game for Walker Kessler115–120
- Q411.1Lamar Stevens enters the game for Luke Kennard115–120
- Q411.1Jazz Full timeout115–120
- Q412.1Ja Morant makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)115–120
- Q434.0Desmond Bane defensive rebound115–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:41Brice Sensabaugh makes two point shotUTAH 109 – 107 MEM · UTAH 40% → 55% +15UTAH 40% → 55%+15 pts
- Q43:23Ja Morant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Wells assists)UTAH 109 – 110 MEM · MEM 44% → 67% +23MEM 44% → 67%+23 pts
- Q42:50Luke Kennard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)UTAH 111 – 113 MEM · MEM 50% → 74% +24MEM 50% → 74%+24 pts
- Q41:16Collin Sexton makes 5-foot two point shot (Walker Kessler assists)UTAH 115 – 114 MEM · UTAH 32% → 57% +25UTAH 32% → 57%+25 pts
- Q455.0Luke Kennard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Scotty Pippen Jr. assists)UTAH 115 – 117 MEM · MEM 40% → 81% +41MEM 40% → 81%+41 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -10.5
- ML UTAH +400 / MEM -600
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -6
- MEM 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- MEM: Elo 71.9%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- MEM -429
- UTAH +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 118.5 – 129.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +37 | +3 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +163 Elo | MEM 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30112.5 | Points scored | 122.62nd of 30 |
| 28th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 116.825th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.2 | Margin | +5.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.9 | Offense rating | 115.46th of 30 |
| 29th of 30116.9 | Defense rating | 109.98th of 30 |
| 7th of 30101.7 | Pace | 106.01st of 30 |
| 26th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–26 | Road vs home | 23–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+37 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–30 | 36–29 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 26–18 |
| Underdog | 34–29 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 39–26 | 39–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 2–3 MEM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.