Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Tyus JonesAssists7
- Nick RichardsRebounds12
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints29
- Ja MorantAssists12
- Desmond BaneRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–120
- Q41.0Suns offensive team rebound118–120
- Q41.0Kevin Durant misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot118–120
- Q48.2Tyus Jones enters the game for Ryan Dunn118–120
- Q48.2Lamar Stevens enters the game for Cam Spencer118–120
- Q48.2Desmond Bane out of bounds bad pass turnover118–120
- Q49.1Grizzlies Full timeout118–120
- Q49.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Mason Plumlee118–120
- Q49.1Cam Spencer enters the game for Marvin Bagley III118–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:38Jay Huff makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)PHX 96 – 100 MEM · MEM 58% → 71% +13MEM 58% → 71%+13 pts
- Q47:45Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)PHX 101 – 104 MEM · PHX 20% → 32% +13PHX 20% → 32%+13 pts
- Q45:51Royce O'Neale makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyus Jones assists)PHX 104 – 105 MEM · PHX 26% → 42% +16PHX 26% → 42%+16 pts
- Q45:35Lamar Stevens makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)PHX 104 – 108 MEM · MEM 58% → 75% +16MEM 58% → 75%+16 pts
- Q43:32Devin Booker makes 22-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)PHX 107 – 110 MEM · PHX 12% → 27% +15PHX 12% → 27%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -2.5
- ML PHX +120 / MEM -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.9 pts
- MEM: Elo 63.5%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MEM -130
- PHX +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 120.5 – 123.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1531 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MEM and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +2 | −5 | PHX: Usual rotation · MEM: Missing Zach Edey −14 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +96 Elo | MEM 63.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 61.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 61.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30114.4 | Points scored | 122.72nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 116.725th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−2.0 | Margin | +6.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.4 | Offense rating | 115.46th of 30 |
| 27th of 30116.4 | Defense rating | 109.88th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3099.1 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–21 | Road vs home | 22–105th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−5 Elo- Zach Edey right ankle soreness−14 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 25–39 | 36–28 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 15–24 | 26–17 |
| Underdog | 10–15 | 10–11 |
| Overs–unders | 34–30 | 39–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 2–4 MEM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.