Toronto Raptors at Utah Jazz, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors UTAH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Scottie BarnesPoints20
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists5
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Jazz- Jordan ClarksonPoints19
- Isaiah CollierAssists8
- Kyle FilipowskiRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–118
- Q47.1Colin Castleton defensive rebound126–118
- Q411.0Johnny Juzang misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot126–118
- Q422.1A.J. Lawson makes free throw 2 of 2126–118
- Q422.1A.J. Lawson makes free throw 1 of 2125–118
- Q422.1Isaiah Collier personal foul124–118
- Q431.1Brice Sensabaugh makes 26-foot three point shot (Kyle Filipowski assists)124–118
- Q434.1Kyle Filipowski defensive rebound124–115
- Q437.1Orlando Robinson misses 9-foot two point shot124–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:26Kyle Filipowski makes 22-foot three point shot (KJ Martin assists)TOR 69 – 71 UTAH · UTAH 49% → 59% +10UTAH 49% → 59%+10 pts
- Q36:52Jamison Battle makes 26-foot three point shot (Jamal Shead assists)TOR 72 – 71 UTAH · TOR 41% → 51% +10TOR 41% → 51%+10 pts
- Q31:25A.J. Lawson makes 24-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 87 – 85 UTAH · TOR 44% → 56% +12TOR 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q343.1Immanuel Quickley makes 28-foot three pointerTOR 90 – 88 UTAH · TOR 44% → 56% +12TOR 44% → 56%+12 pts
- Q410:12RJ Barrett makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 97 – 88 UTAH · TOR 74% → 84% +10TOR 74% → 84%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Jazz 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- UTAH -1.5
- ML TOR +105 / UTAH -125
- Pre-line forecast
- UTAH 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -2
- UTAH 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- UTAH: Elo 41.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- UTAH -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 118.0 – 119.5 UTAH
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | UTAH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1370 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +56 | +8 | TOR: Missing Jakob Poeltl −15, Brandon Ingram −12 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +58 Elo | TOR 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | UTAH 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30110.8 | Points scored | 112.520th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 119.828th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−4.8 | Margin | −7.227th of 30 |
| 26th of 30108.7 | Offense rating | 109.823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30113.5 | Defense rating | 116.929th of 30 |
| 12th of 30101.1 | Pace | 101.86th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–23 | Road vs home | 8–2429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+56 Elo- Jakob Poeltl rest−15 Elo
- Brandon Ingram left ankle sprain−12 Elo
Jazz
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 40–26 | 35–30 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 35–29 |
| Overs–unders | 34–32 | 39–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 1–2 UTAH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.