Milwaukee Bucks at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Brook LopezPoints26
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists8
- Pat ConnaughtonRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints39
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–127
- Q411.1Brook Lopez makes tip shot117–127
- Q412.1Brook Lopez offensive rebound115–127
- Q413.1Kevin Porter Jr. misses driving layup115–127
- Q421.1Nikola Jokic makes 4-foot dunk (Christian Braun assists)115–127
- Q441.1Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound115–125
- Q443.1Gary Trent Jr. misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot115–125
- Q452.1Jamal Murray makes driving layup (Nikola Jokic assists)115–125
- Q41:05AJ Green inbound turnover115–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q32:46Nikola Jokic makes 22-foot three point jumper (Peyton Watson assists)MIL 88 – 88 DEN · DEN 59% → 69% +10DEN 59% → 69%+10 pts
- Q46:55AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Taurean Prince assists)MIL 103 – 106 DEN · MIL 12% → 22% +10MIL 12% → 22%+10 pts
- Q44:44Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 108 – 112 DEN · MIL 7% → 17% +10MIL 7% → 17%+10 pts
- Q42:03Ryan Rollins makes 23-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)MIL 115 – 118 DEN · MIL 4% → 17% +13MIL 4% → 17%+13 pts
- Q41:44Peyton Watson makes 3-foot dunk (Nikola Jokic assists)MIL 115 – 120 DEN · DEN 84% → 94% +10DEN 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML MIL +425 / DEN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -8.5
- DEN 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- DEN: Elo 79.1%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -455
- MIL +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 109.5 – 121.0 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1595 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −147 | +34 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · DEN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +231 Elo | DEN 79.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 80.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 80.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.2 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.6 | Points allowed | 117.025th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.5 | Margin | +3.78th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 117.73rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 114.122nd of 30 |
| 15th of 30100.7 | Pace | 101.76th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–19 | Road vs home | 23–1210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−147 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 37–35 | 34–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 23–30 |
| Underdog | 12–11 | 11–9 |
| Overs–unders | 34–38 | 43–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 2–1 DEN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.