Milwaukee Bucks at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints31
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists5
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds10
Suns- Kevin DurantPoints38
- Devin BookerAssists12
- Nick RichardsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–108
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound106–108
- Q40.0Brook Lopez misses 18-foot two point shot106–108
- Q41.1AJ Green enters the game for Ryan Rollins106–108
- Q41.1Cody Martin enters the game for Grayson Allen106–108
- Q41.1Ryan Dunn enters the game for Royce O'Neale106–108
- Q41.1Bucks Full timeout106–108
- Q42.1Devin Booker makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Royce O'Neale assists)106–108
- Q45.1Suns Full timeout106–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:23Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 27-foot three pointer (Brook Lopez assists)MIL 101 – 101 PHX · MIL 26% → 48% +22MIL 26% → 48%+22 pts
- Q41:22Kyle Kuzma makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 104 – 103 PHX · MIL 26% → 61% +35MIL 26% → 61%+35 pts
- Q426.0Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three pointer (Tyus Jones assists)MIL 105 – 106 PHX · PHX 14% → 71% +57PHX 14% → 71%+57 pts
- Q410.1Brook Lopez makes free throw 2 of 2MIL 106 – 106 PHX · MIL 19% → 50% +31MIL 19% → 50%+31 pts
- Q42.1Devin Booker makes 19-foot step back jumpshot (Royce O'Neale assists)MIL 106 – 108 PHX · PHX 50% → >99% +50PHX 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -2.5
- ML MIL +130 / PHX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1
- PHX 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- PHX: Elo 46.8%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHX -138
- MIL +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 110.5 – 113.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1586 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | −17 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30114.3 | Points scored | 114.713th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 115.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+2.6 | Margin | −1.117th of 30 |
| 12th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 114.97th of 30 |
| 11th of 30110.5 | Defense rating | 116.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30100.9 | Pace | 98.925th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–410th of 30 |
| 14th of 3016–18 | Road vs home | 22–1312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–35 | 30–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 25–24 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 11–11 | 12–17 |
| Overs–unders | 34–37 | 36–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 1–1 PHX in their last 2 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 2.